Industry News

1、 Market supply and demand pattern
Local capacity expansion and technological shortcomings
Indian steel companies such as JSW Steel and Tata Steel will continue to expand production in 2024, driving a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in crude steel production (136 million tons in the first three quarters of the 2024/25 fiscal year). However, the production capacity of high value-added products such as local light steel keel is insufficient, and the dependence on steel imports is high. The net import volume of finished steel in the 2024/25 fiscal year reached 9.5 million tons, a new high in nine years.
China's Import Proportion and Policy Impact
About 35% of steel imports come from China. On April 21, 2025, India imposed a temporary tariff of 12% (valid for 200 days) on 23 types of steel products, including hot-rolled coils, resulting in a 53% drop in China's steel exports to India and directly affecting the import cost of building materials such as light steel keel.

💰  2、 Price formation factors
Transmission of raw material costs
The FOB price for exporting hot-rolled coils from China is $462/ton (May 2025), which is lower than the local price of $133/ton in India;
After the imposition of tariffs, the cost of importing light steel keel into India will increase by an additional 12%, and after adding the land transportation premium, the terminal price may increase by 15% -30%.
Local competition and substitution trends
Small and medium-sized building material manufacturers in India are unable to meet the demand for high-end light steel keel due to outdated technology (equipment update rate of only 32%) and cost disadvantages (steel cost per ton is $50 higher than in China). Some projects are shifting towards purchasing high value-added products from South Korea and Japan, or using scrap steel as a substitute (scrap steel recycling price is about 2510 yuan/ton).

3、 Industry prospects and risks
Short term pressure intensifies: Tariff policies have hindered the export of low-end light steel keel from China, and the supply of mid to low end building materials in India is tightening, which may push up construction costs.
Long term transformation opportunities: The global light steel keel market is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 5.5% before 2030. If India promotes infrastructure modernization (such as the "2030 Infrastructure Plan"), the demand for high value-added light steel keels may increase, but it depends on technological upgrades rather than trade protection.
Policy uncertainty: It is unclear whether the 200 day temporary tariff will continue after its expiration, and there is a risk of diversion through third countries such as Vietnam.